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MMABETS

Caller

Paul Felder

Believe You Me · retired UFC

Paul Felder has called 13 of 19 fights right. Betting $100 on each of the 19 priced picks would have made $38, picking the favourite 84% of the time.

68%
Hit rate
?

How often they picked the fighter who actually won. Only fights with a result count.

13 of 19 graded picks right
+$38
$100-a-pick result
?

If you had bet $100 on every one of their picks at the odds bookmakers offered right before the fight, this is what you'd have won or lost.

19 picks had bookmaker odds
84%
Picked the favourite
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How often their pick was the fighter the bookmakers expected to win. Picking favourites is the easy way to a high hit rate.

1 of 3
Underdog calls right
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How many times they picked the fighter the bookmakers expected to lose, and how many of those came true.

74%
Bookies' favourite on the same fights
?

What you would have hit by simply picking the bookmakers' favourite in the same fights. A caller beating this number is adding something.

Last 5
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Results of their five most recent graded picks, oldest to newest.

More stats
Called the finish
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When they also said how the fight ends (knockout, submission or decision), how often that part was right too.

2 of 5 right
Confident calls
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Picks they stated plainly, without hedging or joking.

10 of 15 right
Forecast score vs bookmakers
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A score for how close their calls were to what happened. Lower is better. Shown next to the bookmakers' score on the same fights.

0.316 vs 0.174

Every pick, with the receipt

Newest card first. Tap “Verify” to watch the moment they said it.

UFC 324: Gaethje vs PimblettSat, Jan 24, 2026 · 5 of 6 right

WrongPaddy Pimblettover Justin Gaethje
Odds -245 (favourite)$100 bet → −$100Result: Justin Gaethje by decision R5
“But I just think the younger, stronger, hungrier guy is is Patty. And yeah, I if I have to give a pick, I'm going to I'm going to pick Patty Pimlet in this one.”
Clip plays from 40:01. Open on YouTube ↗
RightSean O'Malleyover Song Yadong
Odds -225 (favourite)$100 bet → +$44Result: Sean O'Malley by decision R3
“I I I I I so on the fence with this one [...] if it's just a striking battle yeah I think he should probably go out there and be the slicker better guy on the feet”
Clip plays from 124:30. Open on YouTube ↗
RightWaldo Cortes Acostaover Derrick Lewis
Odds -334 (favourite)$100 bet → +$30Result: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO R2
“I got to go with my boy uh Waldo Cortez Aosta. [...] I think there's a good chance he gets knocked out as well, but I'm going with our boy Cortez Aosta in this one.”
Clip plays from 114:00. Open on YouTube ↗
RightNatalia Silvaby decisionover Rose Namajunas
Odds -332 (favourite)$100 bet → +$30Result: Natalia Silva by decision R3
“I think it's going to go to decision, too. [...] I think she can pull off a decision against Rose and I love Rose and she could pull it out, but I'm I'm going with Natalyia Silva, too.”
Clip plays from 116:01. Open on YouTube ↗
RightJean Silvaover Arnold Allen
Odds -222 (favourite)$100 bet → +$45Result: Jean Silva by decision R3
“I I like I like John Silva in this fight. I think Arnold being out as long as he has and then you got to come in against some crazy [ __ ] like John Silva. [...] I think Lord Silva comes back strong in this one.”
Clip plays from 119:30. Open on YouTube ↗
RightUmar Nurmagomedovover Deiveson Figueiredo
Odds -1600 (favourite)$100 bet → +$6Result: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision R3
“I I I think Umar gets this one done. I think he might even be able to to pull off a finish in this one.”
Clip plays from 20:32. Open on YouTube ↗

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs MakhachevSat, Nov 15, 2025 · 1 of 3 right

WrongJack Della Maddalenaover Islam Makhachev
Odds +245 (underdog)$100 bet → −$100Result: Islam Makhachev by decision R5
“I'm going to pick Jack Dela Matalena in this fight. [...] I know you're going to do Jack. >> I'm going to do Jack.”
Clip plays from 68:01. Open on YouTube ↗
WrongSean Bradyby submissionover Michael Morales
Odds -150 (favourite)$100 bet → −$100Result: Michael Morales by KO/TKO R1
“I I mean, I think Shawn's going to get it done. I did it for the DraftKings thing, too. I think I I think a late sub for Shawn.”
Clip plays from 33:00. Open on YouTube ↗
RightCarlos Pratesover Leon Edwards
Odds -169 (favourite)$100 bet → +$59Result: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO R2
“I as well am going to go with Carlos Bratz. I just think uh I think if they're both going to strike and I think Carlos does have good enough takedown defense”
Clip plays from 30:31. Open on YouTube ↗

UFC 321: Aspinall vs GaneSat, Oct 25, 2025 · 3 of 4 right

No contestTom Aspinallover Ciryl Gane
Odds -392 (favourite)
“If I'm giving my pick, I'm still going with Tom Aspinall to get the dub. But I do think that there is a world where if they stay on the feet, Ciryl Gane, especially if it drags on and gets into deeper water”
Clip plays from 49:01. Open on YouTube ↗
RightMackenzie Dernover Virna Jandiroba
Odds -145 (favourite)$100 bet → +$69Result: Mackenzie Dern by decision R5
“Yeah, I agree with you there. I just think that her path to victory of getting Mackenzie Dern down and and submitting her I think is not bloody likely.”
Clip plays from 69:30. Open on YouTube ↗
RightUmar Nurmagomedovover Mario Bautista
Odds -634 (favourite)$100 bet → +$16Result: Umar Nurmagomedov by decision R3
“But I think Umar just the speed that he strikes with at that distance, the way he can mix in wrestling, yeah, I I I see Umar winning that fight.”
Clip plays from 70:30. Open on YouTube ↗
WrongJailton Almeidaby submissionover Alexander Volkov
Odds -190 (favourite)$100 bet → −$100Result: Alexander Volkov by decision R3
“Uh I'm going to go Almeida. I think he's going to find a way to get this fight to the ground and I think he's going to sub him.”
Clip plays from 72:01. Open on YouTube ↗
RightAzamat Murzakanovby KO/TKOover Aleksandar Rakic
Odds +102 (underdog)$100 bet → +$102Result: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO R1
“I I I I like Azamat. I I think he's just got uh a special special touch in the in those hands. I think he's going to find that chin of Rakić. [...] but I think Murzakanov's going to get it done.”
Clip plays from 86:01. Open on YouTube ↗

UFC 314: Volkano vs ki vs. LopesSat, Apr 12, 2025 · 4 of 6 right

RightAlexander Volkanovskiover Diego Lopes
Odds -156 (favourite)$100 bet → +$64Result: Alexander Volkanovski by decision R5
“But, I'm backing Volk on this one. Um again, I'm either calling a late stoppage, round four or five, or uh like you talked about, Harrington, just uh a a pretty clean decision on this one.”
Clip plays from 37:31. Open on YouTube ↗
RightPaddy Pimblettover Michael Chandler
Odds -165 (favourite)$100 bet → +$61Result: Paddy Pimblett by KO/TKO R3
“Yeah, dude, you know, I I have also been leaning that way. Like I said earlier, if you're a betting guy, Chandler is Chandler as the underdog, but I swear to God that that's where my mind is going.”
Clip plays from 67:30. Open on YouTube ↗
RightYair Rodriguezover Patricio Freire
Odds -160 (favourite)$100 bet → +$62Result: Yair Rodriguez by decision R3
“I think I think he'll show that he belongs there, but I see Yair winning this fight.”
Clip plays from 94:31. Open on YouTube ↗
RightJean Silvaby KO/TKOover Bryce Mitchell
Odds -205 (favourite)$100 bet → +$49Result: Jean Silva by submission R2
“But, man, I don't know if I can go against Rousimar Palhares in this one. I think he's going to get it done, and um he's probably going to find a way to knock him out.”
Clip plays from 82:31. Open on YouTube ↗
WrongNikita Krylovover Dominick Reyes
Odds -160 (favourite)$100 bet → −$100Result: Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO R1
“Ah man, well, I hate to agree with you here, Michael, but I also I'm going with I mean, yeah, I can only be honest with you. [...] I love Nikita”
Clip plays from 96:30. Open on YouTube ↗
WrongJim Millerover Chase Hooper
Odds +550 (underdog)$100 bet → −$100Result: Chase Hooper by decision R3hedged or joking
“I absolutely can see um uh Chase Hooper getting it done, but if I had to pick If I had to pick, I'm picking Jim.”
Clip plays from 99:31. Open on YouTube ↗